|
EARTHFUTURE.COM by Guy Dauncey
Peaches and blueberries, apples and plums, ‘tis the season of harvest and amply fed tums. But there’s a cloud looming on the farming horizon that we need to address, before it renders our harvest celebration considerably less celebratory.
In the summer of 2003, when Europe sweltered through a month-long heat wave, Ukraine lost 75 percent of its harvest. Overall, Europe lost 32 million tonnes of grain that summer, the equivalent of half the US wheat crop. As temperatures rise because of climate change, we can expect to see similar losses. At the same time, our population is growing by 74 million people a year, the equivalent of two additional Canadas and two Irelands.
For the past 50 years, modern farming has shown an amazing ability to increase production in pace with the growing population. However, from 2000 to 2003 it failed to do so, and the world’s food surplus fell dramatically. Fortunately, in 2004 the harvest bounced back with a record 2,049 million tons, nine percent higher than in 2003. We should not become complacent, however. Of the three fertilizers used in chemical farming, nitrogen depends on natural gas for its synthesis from atmospheric nitrogen, and the world’s gas supply will peak by 2020, and disappear by 2060. Phosphate and potash both require oil for mining, processing, and trucking, and the world’s oil supply will be gone by 2030. Most pesticides are also made from oil and gas.
Further, the water tables are falling in several of the world’s grain-growing areas: the North China Plan; most of India; and in the US, the southern Great Plains and the southwest. No water, no food. Enough! This is the kind of stuff that gives environmentalists a bad name: – gloom, doom, and worst-case scenarios. But let’s assume there will be a global food crunch, as temperatures rise, water tables fall, oil and gas become too expensive to use, and the world population keeps rising. Where will our food come from, then?
The answer lies in our own backyards, and in a worldwide shift to organic production. If Cuba can do it, what’s to stop the rest of us? As the food crisis deepens and the price of oil keeps rising, the cost of food will go up, making it more attractive to grow local, organic food. As oil-driven cars and trucks disappear from our streets, making way for bicycles, biofuelled buses, and electric vehicles, the air will become cleaner too, making people feel better about growing food in the city. The next time you wander around your neighbourhood, make a mental note of how much land could grow food. It’s everywhere! Yet, in Victoria, which prides itself on being the city of gardens, I estimate that only one garden in five has much beyond a lawn.
When we grow food organically, there’s no need for pesticides and fertilizers, and the food is healthier, too. A recent study of 180 farms in Britain showed that organic farms are also better for wildlife, with 85 percent more plant species, 33 percent more bats, 17 percent more spiders, and 5 percent more birds.
Could the prairies go organic? Of course they could, and many farmers are already growing organic crops. The shift entails smaller farms with more people working, a great benefit to rural life as homesteads grow into rural ecovillages. In Europe, several nations help farmers make the switch with an organic transition subsidy, financed by a tax on pesticides and fertilizers. The yields from organic farming can be just as high as yields from chemical farming, so there’s no need to worry about declining harvests.
Finally, two other changes would make our food supply go much further. First, we should stop wasting so much (and eating so much). A recent eight-year study by a University of Arizona archaeologist has documented that more than 40 percent of the food grown in the US is either lost or thrown away. Secondly, if we stopped eating meat, we could produce far more food, since a meat-based diet requires seven times more land than a diet based on plants. More than half of US farmland is devoted to cattle. A meat-eater needs 3.25 acres of farmland. A vegetarian needs 0.5 acres. A vegan needs 0.16 acres. I rest my case.
Guy Dauncey is president of the BC Sustainable Energy Association (www.bcsea.org). He leads a five-day workshop on Spirit, Science and Evolution: The Great Unfolding at Hollyhock, October 9-14. www.hollyhock.ca
|
|
