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EARTHFUTURE.COM by Guy Dauncey
If you drive a car, chances are you’re wondering, “When will this stop?” At $40 a fill-up for a small car, or $80 for a family van or SUV, it’s becoming an important question. If you heat your home with oil or gas, you face a much higher heating bill this winter.
Why is it happening? Are the oil companies gouging us? Is it a response to the war in Iraq, and hurricanes Katrina and Rita? Or is something else going on? The answer to all these questions is probably yes. Yes, the oil companies may be playing the price increases; that’s what oil companies do. People hate to feel they’re being ripped off, but there’s little we can do, and they know it. If it’s any comfort, in England people are paying almost $2.20 a litre.
Yes, political uncertainties in the Middle East may be contributing somewhat, and yes, caused a big spike in prices, and closed down one-quarter of all US oil production. These are temporary influences, however, which cannot explain the rise in the price of crude oil from $20 a barrel in 2002, to $30 in 2003, $40 in 2004, $50 in 2005, and currently between $60 and $70. At this rate, it will hit $100 a barrel by 2010, or sooner.
Monthly Outlook, published by the US Energy Information Agency, shows the price of oil, and also predicts its future. For the past three years, the publication has been consistently wrong. Every month, the price goes up. Every month, Outlook predicts that it will level off. And every month, the price keeps rising.
Why are the top US energy analysts so hopelessly wrong? Because every month they believe the increase has been caused by a temporary blip that will soon correct itself. The analysts are either unwilling, or unable, to tell us what may really be happening. The truth may be that we are approaching the halfway mark in the world’s oil supply, after which production will start to decline.
The consensus seems to be that the Earth’s legacy of accessible oil, laid down by ancient sea creatures and plants, millions of years ago, is around two trillion barrels, of which we have used one trillion; that is why we are close to the halfway mark. We are consuming 30.6 billion barrels a year (84 million barrels a day), a level of consumption that rises steadily as China and India climb on board.
As soon as we pass the halfway mark, we enter the last years of the Age of Oil. From that moment onwards, the price will rise every year until we reduce our global demand, by adopting more efficient, sustainable sources of energy, and leaving the oil behind us. This peak may have happened this summer.
Alberta’s tar sands hold 300 billion barrels of unconventional oil, but the oil companies can only extract one million barrels a day, which is not enough to make a difference. The most they can hope to extract is four million barrels a day, by 2020. There is no reason to panic, however, or fear the end of civilization. We are a resourceful, energetic, innovative species, and this is simply a transition. It is no more the end of the world than was the change from horses to cars in the early 20th century.
The world has an ample supply of sustainable electricity from the sun, wind, tides, and other renewable sources. We don’t need nuclear power or hot fusion. You can run a small, “smart,” electric vehicle for as little as seven dollars a month, or $20 for a larger one. You can add batteries to a Prius to create a plug-in hybrid that can run around town on electric power, and use biodiesel or ethanol from agricultural wastes for longer journeys. We can build zero-energy homes and developments that use no fossil fuels, and make no contribution to global climate change. We can grow much more food locally, instead of shipping it vast distances across the world.
The biggest problem is not a lack of solutions. It is a lack of political will among our leaders, who seem to be as blind to what is about to happen as US leaders were to the impact of Katrina on New Orleans. The BC Sustainable Energy Association (www.bcsea.org) was created in 2004 to campaign for solutions in a positive, vigorous way, and so far, the response has been amazing. So don’t waste time complaining about the price of gasoline. Get on board with the search for solutions, and celebrate the coming end of the Age of Oil.
Guy Dauncey is president of the BC Sustainable Energy Association (www.bcsea.org). He leads a five-day workshop on Spirit, Science and Evolution: The Great Unfolding at Hollyhock, October 9-14. www.hollyhock.ca He lives in Victoria.
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